[Market Summary]
On January 16 (local time), the U.S. stock market closed slightly lower across the board, driven by uncertainty regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair.
Dow Jones: 49,149.63 (-0.17%)
S&P 500: 6,926.60 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq: 23,471.75 (-0.06%)
Fed Chair Uncertainty: The market reacted to news that Kevin Hassett, the favorite for Fed Chair and a known dove, reportedly prefers to stay in his current White House role. President Trump commented, "I want to let him stay where he wants to be," signaling he may not nominate Hassett. Consequently, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is surging in prediction markets as the leading candidate.
Holiday Notice: The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, Jan 19, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, resulting in a three-day weekend.
[Featured Stocks & Analyst Updates]
■ Nvidia (NVDA)
EOL Rumors Refuted: Nvidia officially denied rumors that it would discontinue the RTX 50 series to focus on AI GPUs. The company clarified that supply issues are due to the surge in RAM demand for AI data centers, not a production halt. They are currently negotiating with memory suppliers to secure DRAM for both consumer and AI segments.
■ Amazon (AMZN)
Saks Global Dispute: Amazon asked the court to reject Saks Global’s bankruptcy financing plan, claiming Saks squandered hundreds of millions in less than a year and failed to honor partnership agreements. Amazon’s $475M investment in Saks' acquisition of Neiman Marcus is now deemed virtually worthless.
Game Shutdown: Amazon Games announced it will shut down the servers for "New World" on January 31, 2027. This marks another struggle for Amazon in the gaming industry, following previous setbacks with its game store and Luna service.
■ Citi Analysis: Intel (INTC) & Micron (MU)
■ Intel: Upgraded from Sell to Neutral ($50 PT). Citi believes Intel can benefit from the advanced packaging supply shortage at TSMC and has a window to attract foundry customers with U.S. government support. However, risks remain regarding CPU market share loss to AMD and ARM.
■ Micron: Maintained Buy, raised target to $385. While removed from the "U.S. Focus List" due to slowing DRAM momentum in Q2, Citi expect a long-term supply-demand balance through 2027. Notably, Director Tai-Jin Liu recently purchased 23,000 shares (approx. $7.82M).
■ TSMC (TSM)
AI Catalyst: Reported 35% profit growth in Q4, crushing consensus.
Analyst Action: Wells Fargo maintained Outperform, noting the shift from AI training to inference. JP Morgan highlighted their aggressive Capex as a sign of confidence. Bernstein noted the $52B–$56B Capex plan is a major boon for ASML.
■ Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)
Strategic Shift: ARK has been selling Tesla (TSLA) shares (86,139 shares sold) and aggressively buying Broadcom (AVGO) (111,781 shares bought for ARKK). Tesla remains the top holding at ~10% of the portfolio.
■ Bernstein CIO Survey
Rising IT Budgets: Surveyed CIOs expect robust IT spending driven by AI projects. Microsoft (MSFT) (78%) and Amazon AWS (42%) are the top beneficiaries, while Salesforce, Oracle, and Snowflake lagged in spending intent.
■ Intel (INTC) - RBC Capital
Initiated at Sector Perform: $50 PT. Analyst Srini Pajjuri noted that while things are improving, the PER of 73x (2026 EPS) is high. The key challenge remains securing external foundry customers.
■ Software Sector (CRM, NOW, ADBE, MNDY)
William Blair Analysis: Argued that fears of AI cannibalizing enterprise software are groundless. While tools like Anthropic's "Cowork" improve productivity, they are unlikely to replace deeply integrated enterprise systems.
■ SanDisk (SNDK)
Target Hike: Raised to $385 (Sector Weight). The investment theme depends on the lack of new capacity expansion plans.
■ Novo Nordisk (NVO)
Wegovy Success: Recorded 3,071 prescriptions in the first 4 days of the U.S. oral launch. The UK’s MHRA approved a max weekly dose of 7.2mg for obesity management.
■ ASML (ASML)
Top Pick: Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight and raised target to €1,400, projecting record 2027 revenue of €46.8B.
■ Coupang (CPNG)
Upgrade to Buy: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy ($25 PT), viewing the recent 32.5% price drop as an entry opportunity despite regulatory and data breach risks.
■ Walt Disney (DIS)
Lucasfilm Leadership: Dave Filoni (Star Wars veteran) was appointed President of Lucasfilm, succeeding Kathleen Kennedy.
■ ImmunityBio (IBRX)
Sales Growth: Shares surged on forecasts that Anktiva (bladder cancer) annual sales will jump 700%.
■ PNC Financial (PNC)
Earnings Beat: Q4 EPS ($4.88) and revenue ($5.96B) beat estimates. Projected 11% revenue growth through 2026.
■ Reddit (RDDT)
Target $300: Needham highlighted Reddit's 100% human-generated content as a premium data source for AI firms, already generating $100M+ in annual licensing fees.
■ Boeing (BA)
Labor Agreement: Reached a tentative deal with the SPEEA union for 1,600 employees, including a 20% wage pool increase over 5 years.
■ Netflix (NFLX)
Content Momentum: Strong Q4 lineup (Stranger Things, Knives Out) expected to drive 17% revenue growth ($11.9B), though WBD acquisition rumors remain an uncertainty.
■ Honeywell (HON)
Upgrade to Overweight: JP Morgan raised target to $255, viewing the upcoming spin-offs (Advanced Materials, Aerospace) as a buying opportunity.
■ ConocoPhillips (COP)
Downgrade to Underperform: BofA ($102 PT) noted a high WTI break-even point ($53/bbl) compared to peers and a lower FCF yield (4.4%).
■ Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Guidance Concerns: BofA maintained Buy, but the market reacted to conservative 2026 EPS guidance ($6.50–$7.50), which is below the $7.30 consensus.
■ Planet Fitness (PLNT)
GLP-1 Tailwind: Stifel maintained Buy ($130 PT), noting that ~50% of new GLP-1 users are considering gym memberships.
■ State Street (STT)
Record AUC: Reported $53.8 trillion in AUC. However, net income fell 5% due to a $226M restructuring cost.
■ AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
Government Contract: Secured prime contractor status for the "SHIELD" program under the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.
■ UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Top Pick: Bernstein maintained Outperform ($444 PT), citing a recovery in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid margins.
■ Energy Infrastructure (GEV, BE, PWR / CEG, VST)
Trump Pressure: The administration is pressuring tech giants to bear data center-driven grid costs. Constellation (CEG) and Vistra (VST) fell as IPPs argued for caps on excess profits.
■ QXO (QXO)
Stock Offering: Announced a $750M stock offering (31.64M shares at $23.80) to fund M&A and expansion.
■ AMD (AMD)
RAM Pricing: Emphasized no immediate price hike plans but warned that maintaining current prices may be difficult if high-quality RAM supply remains limited.
■ HP (HPQ)
Downgrade to Sell: Barclays ($18 PT) cited structural slowdown in PC/printers and margin pressure from rising memory costs.
■ Riot Platforms (RIOT)
AMD Lease: Signed a 10-year, $311M–$1B lease agreement with AMD to provide 25MW of power/facilities at its Rockdale center.
■ Seagate (STX)
Upgrade to Neutral: Susquehanna ($280 PT) admitted its previous bearish HDD outlook was wrong, as AI increases data value and HDD demand.
■ Wipro (WIT)
Earnings Miss: Q3 EPS ($0.03) missed expectations. Revenue guidance for the current quarter also came in below consensus.
■ Crypto Regulation (COIN, HOOD)
Senate Delay: Coinbase and Robinhood fell 6-7% after the Senate Banking Committee delayed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
■ Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Tactical Outperform: Evercore raised target to $165, citing its multi-price point strategy and improved store standards.
■ Amcor (AMCR)
Stock Split: Completed a 5-for-1 stock split. Market focus remains on high debt and weak profitability.
■ Regions Financial (RF)
Earnings Miss: Q4 adjusted EPS ($0.57) missed the $0.61 estimate.
■ Verizon (VZ)
Compensation Cost: Announced a $20 credit per account for recent outages. Total cost for 32M postpaid accounts is estimated at $647M.
[After-Hours & Other News]
■ DraftKings (DKNG): Shares fell 8% as NY sports betting revenue dropped 40% YoY during the NFL Wildcard weekend, suggesting competition from other platforms.
■ EVs & Crypto: Tesla fell 0.24%, while Lucid rose 0.70%. Bitcoin slid below $95,000 amid Fed Chair uncertainty and falling metal prices.
