[Market Summary]
The three major New York indices showed mixed results on the first trading day of the new year. Volatility increased as performance within the tech sector diverged.
On January 2 (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 319.10 points (0.66%) to close at 48,382.39. The S&P 500 increased by 12.97 points (0.19%) to 6,858.47, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 6.36 points (0.03%) to finish at 23,235.63.
The market fluctuated from the opening bell. After four consecutive days of weakness, indices started strong due to bargain hunting but faced immediate sell-offs due to valuation concerns. However, in the afternoon, buying interest shifted toward traditional industrials and value stocks, leading the Dow to gains while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished near flat.
By sector, the tech industry saw split results. The DJ US Software Index plunged 2.69%, the largest drop among all sectors. Conversely, the DJ US Semiconductors Index surged 2.16%, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) skyrocketing 4.01%. Energy (+2%) and Industrials (+1.88%) also saw strong gains, while Consumer Discretionary fell 1.14%.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate freeze in January stands at 82.8%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.94% to 14.51.
[Key IB Investment Opinions]
Apple (AAPL): Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform, noting that strong fundamentals are already priced in.
Nvidia (NVDA): TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating, citing the licensing deal with LPU maker Groq as a catalyst for their roadmap.
Nike (NKE): BTIG maintained a Buy rating, forecasting a significant recovery in the first half of 2026.
CoreWeave (CRWV): Compass Point maintained Buy, highlighting robust multi-year demand and rapid capacity expansion.
Cenovus Energy (CVE): Goldman Sachs resumed coverage with a Buy rating, citing strong free cash flow growth.
[Featured Stocks & Headlines]
■ Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA)
Groq Acquisition: Nvidia's acquisition of AI chip startup Groq secures LPU (Language Processing Unit) technology specialized in low-latency inference, signaling an expansion into the inference market beyond GPU training.
CES 2026 Catalyst: CEO Jensen Huang is expected to unveil strategies for data centers, physical AI, and robotics.
China Market Re-entry: Expectations for 2026 revenue are rising as the US government allowed exports of H200 AI chips to China.
■ Electric Vehicles: Tesla (TSLA) vs. BYD
Tesla: Reported Q4 deliveries of 418,227 units (-16% YoY), missing Wall Street estimates. 2025 marked the second consecutive year of declining annual sales (1.64M units).
BYD: Officially became the world's largest EV seller in 2025, delivering 2.26M battery EVs (+28% YoY), overtaking Tesla 14 years after Elon Musk famously dismissed the brand.
Rivian (RIVN): Missed Q4 delivery estimates (9,745 units) due to the end of EV tax credits, but focus remains on the upcoming mass-market R2 SUV.
Chinese Peers: Li Auto, NIO, and XPeng showed strong December growth, with XPeng's annual deliveries surging 126%.
■ Tech & Platforms
Coinbase (COIN): Aiming to be an "All-in-one Trading Platform" in 2026, adding 24-hour stock/ETF trading and "SocialFi" features to compete with Robinhood.
Pinterest (PINS): Rumors surfaced that OpenAI might consider acquiring Pinterest for its vast image data and ad network.
Baidu (BIDU): Plans to spin off and list its chip unit, Kunlunxin, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
■ Traditional Sectors & Others
US Furniture Stocks (RH, WSM, W): Shares rose after President Trump deferred tariff hikes on furniture for one year.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK): Concerns linger as Greg Abel takes the helm of a company holding a record $381.6 billion in cash following Warren Buffett's departure.
Micron (MU): Bernstein raised its target price to $330, predicting the HBM-driven memory boom will continue through 2026.
ASML: Aletheia Capital upgraded ASML to Buy (Target $1,500), citing rebounding EUV demand from TSMC and memory makers.
