■ Nvidia (NVDA) - Earnings Scheduled for Feb 25
• UBS Analysis: Maintained a Buy rating and $245 target. Investors will focus on management's assessment of AI sector risks, specifically whether massive infrastructure spending will maintain profitability.
• CUDA Defense: Amid risks from tools like Anthropic’s "Claude Code," management is expected to emphasize the competitive moat of the CUDA platform.
• Competition: Attention will also be on the threat from AI semiconductor startups like Olix in the UK.
■ Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG)
• 100-Year Bond Concerns: Fundstrat compared Alphabet’s 100-year GBP-denominated bond issuance to past failures like JCPenney and GM. They noted that ultra-long-term bonds are often issued when business models peak.
• AI Infrastructure: While Alphabet is only 28 years old and the AI infra industry is just 3 years old, the issuance saw orders 10x the size of the offering, showing high expectations for Mega-cap tech.
■ Applied Materials (AMAT)
• Earnings Beat: Reported adjusted EPS of $2.38 and revenue of $7.01B, exceeding market estimates of $2.21 and $6.87B.
• Strong Guidance: Projected April quarter revenue at ~$7.65B and EPS at $2.64, both well above LSEG estimates.
■ Rivian (RIVN)
• Performance: Q4 results showed revenue of $1.29B and an adjusted EPS loss of $0.70, slightly better than expected.
• UBS Upgrade: Upgraded from Sell to Neutral ($16 PT). Analysts cited improved risk-reward and confidence in the R2 model, which is scheduled for first customer deliveries in Q2 2026.
• 2026 Guidance: Targeted 62,000–67,000 deliveries for the year.
■ Alibaba (BABA) & Baidu (BIDU)
• Military List Report: Shares are falling pre-market on reports that the Trump administration may add these companies to the '1260H' list for allegedly supporting the Chinese military.
• Company Rebuttal: Both companies denied military involvement, stating their products are for civilian use and that such a listing would not disrupt global operations.
■ Earnings & Guidance Summary
• ■ Roku (ROKU): Q4 EPS of $0.53 crushed the $0.27 guidance. 2026 annual revenue forecast raised to $5.5B.
• ■ Arista Networks (ANET): Q4 revenue surged 29% to $2.48B. Maintained annual gross margin guidance of 62–64%.
• ■ Expedia (EXPE): Beat estimates with $3.78 EPS and revenue of $3.55B. However, concerns remain regarding AI replacing OTA services.
• ■ Pinterest (PINS): Fell after missing both Q4 EPS (67c vs 69c est) and Q1 revenue guidance.
• ■ DraftKings (DKNG): Q4 revenue rose 43%, but EPS of 36c missed the 39c estimate. 2026 guidance was significantly lower than Wall Street expectations.
• ■ Moderna (MRNA): Beat Q4 estimates, but reported a 2025 net loss of $2.8B. Received an FDA rejection for its flu vaccine application in the US.
■ Analyst Downgrades & Sector Shifts
• ■ Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): JPM downgraded to Neutral ($20 PT) following the resignation of CEO Harry Sommer.
• ■ Dollar Tree (DLTR): BMO Capital downgraded to Underperform ($95 PT) due to a weak digital strategy.
• ■ Intel (INTC): DA Davidson maintained Neutral ($45 PT), noting that while the stock rose 110% recently, earnings have yet to prove the technology and foundry performance.
• ■ Albemarle (ALB): Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform ($216 PT), citing strong demand for stationary energy storage from data centers.
■ Other Key News
• ■ Steel & Aluminum: Tickers like STLD, CLF, and AA are in focus as President Trump hinted at reducing tariffs on these metals.
• ■ Intuitive Machines (LUNR): Deutsche Bank started coverage with a Buy ($18 PT), highlighting the lunar economy as a low-competition niche.
• ■ Novartis (NVS): Phase 3 trial for Varlapia successfully slowed kidney function decline in IgAN patients.
• ■ Dutch Bros (BROS): Surged pre-market after reporting EPS of 17c, far exceeding the 10c estimate.