[Market Summary]
On February 18 (local time), the New York stock market closed higher as panic surrounding AI began to ease. While the possibility of further rate cuts was discussed in the Federal Reserve's minutes, internal disagreements among governors capped the day's gains.
Dow Jones: 49,662.66 (+129.47 pts, +0.26%)
S&P 500: 6,881.31 (+38.09 pts, +0.56%)
Nasdaq: 22,753.64 (+175.26 pts, +0.78%)
FOMC Minutes & Disruption: The Fed released the minutes from its January FOMC meeting, suggesting that rate cuts could resume if inflation continues to cool. However, a divide was confirmed: some governors argued for maintaining current rates until data is further evaluated, while a few "hawks" even suggested potential hikes. This news caused indices to pare earlier gains.
Oil and Geopolitics: WTI crude oil futures surged 4.27% after Iran rejected key U.S. requirements during nuclear negotiations. Vice President JD Vance warned on Fox News that President Trump reserves the right to use military force if diplomacy fails to halt Iran’s nuclear program.
[Detailed Investment Bank (IB) Analysis]
■ Applied Materials (AMAT): JP Morgan maintained an Overweight rating, noting that the recent earnings and guidance have significantly bolstered the growth outlook for 2026.
■ Microsoft (MSFT): Goldman Sachs re-affirmed a Buy rating, viewing the recent underperformance as a prime "buy-the-dip" opportunity.
■ Tesla (TSLA): Wells Fargo maintained an Underweight rating, citing channel checks that show an 18% YoY drop in January deliveries, a trend expected to persist.
■ Pinterest (PINS): Evercore downgraded the stock from Outperform to In-line ($45 PT), reflecting disappointing quarterly results.
■ Palantir (PLTR): Mizuho Securities upgraded Palantir from Neutral to Buy ($195 PT), stating that after a 46% drop in its EV/FCF multiple this year, the risk/reward ratio is now highly attractive.
■ Coinbase (COIN): Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating, evaluating that despite missing expectations, the current valuation remains compelling.
[Featured Stocks & Strategy]
■ Amazon.com (AMZN)
Ackman’s Bet: Billionaire Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square increased its stake in Amazon by approximately 65% ($865M) in Q4, bringing its total holding to over $2.2 billion.
■ New York Times (NYT)
Buffett’s Return: Berkshire Hathaway revealed a new $350 million investment in the NYT, owning ~5.07 million shares. This marks a re-evaluation of the Times as a "digital-based media leader" rather than a traditional newspaper.
■ ARM Holdings (ARM) & Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia Sells Out: Nvidia sold its entire stake in ARM Holdings (over 1.1 million shares worth ~$155.8M). Analysts believe this doesn't end their partnership, as Nvidia’s Grace CPU is still based on ARM technology.
Synopsys (SNPS): Nvidia now owns 4.82 million shares of Synopsys (worth over $2B), becoming its 6th largest shareholder.
■ Semiconductor & Hardware Earnings
Analog Devices (ADI): Crushed Q4 estimates and issued bullish guidance for the current quarter ($3.4B–$3.6B revenue), significantly beating consensus.
Cadence (CDNS): Reported a Q4 beat ($1.99 EPS) and projected 2026 revenue to reach up to $6 billion.
Axcelis (ACLS): Despite a Q4 beat, shares were hit by weak Q1 EPS guidance ($0.71 vs. $1.01 est).
■ AI Infrastructure & Cloud
Nebius (NIBS): Compass Point initiated coverage with a Buy ($150 PT), highlighting its ability to convert GPU investments into usable high-density data center clusters.
Verisk Analytics (VRSK): Beat Q4 estimates ($1.82 EPS). Analysts noted that despite AI disruption fears, Verisk’s proprietary data makes it resilient.
■ Consumer & Services
Garmin (GRMN): Surpassed Q4 expectations and provided a 2026 revenue outlook of $7.9 billion, beating estimates.
Wingstop (WING): Reported a massive EPS beat ($1.00 vs. $0.84 est), though revenue slightly missed expectations.
Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS): Announced plans to spin off the New York Knicks and New York Rangers into independent public companies.
[After-Hours Featured Stocks]
■ eBay (EBAY): Surged 6.17% after agreeing to acquire Gen Z resale platform Depop from Etsy for $1.2 billion in cash.
■ Figma (FIGMA): Skyrocketed 17.40% after an "Earnings Surprise" beat and raising 2026 revenue guidance to $1.37 billion.
■ Carvana (CVNA): Plunged 21.14% despite an EPS beat, as adjusted EBITDA missed expectations and investors worried about immediate profitability.
■ DoorDash (DASH): Fell 1.61% as Q4 EPS and revenue missed expectations due to heavy investments in autonomous delivery.
■ Booking Holdings (BKNG): Announced a 25-for-1 stock split and a 9.4% dividend hike despite a slight after-hours dip.
■ Herbalife (HLF): Jumped 11% on strong results and news that Cristiano Ronaldo acquired a 10% stake in its Pro2col subsidiary.
