[Market Summary]
All three major U.S. indices closed down more than 1% as investors grappled with a volatile trade policy and the persistent threat of AI disruption to traditional business models.
Dow Jones: 48,804.06 (-821.91 pts, -1.66%)
S&P 500: 6,837.75 (-71.76 pts, -1.04%)
Nasdaq: 22,627.27 (-258.80 pts, -1.13%)
The 15% Tariff Shock: Uncertainty hit the markets even before the opening bell after President Trump hiked worldwide tariffs to 15% over the weekend. Fatigue over impulsive trade policies is mounting; while the 15% figure is significant, the unpredictability of the administration's moves is causing deeper anxiety. Meanwhile, the EU has suspended the ratification of a trade agreement with the U.S., adding to the fog.
AI "Public Enemy Number One": Fears that AI will spark destructive innovation continue to weigh on sentiment. Following Anthropic's release of its 'Claude' tool, cybersecurity stocks and IBM took a heavy hit today as investors worry about existing software moats being breached.
Macro Indicators: The CME FedWatch tool now reflects a 44.7% probability of interest rates remaining frozen through June. The VIX (fear gauge) surged 10.06% to 21.01, while WTI crude oil closed at $66.43 (+1.9%) amid escalating tensions with Iran.
[Detailed Investment Bank (IB) Analysis]
■ Nvidia (NVDA): JP Morgan maintained an Overweight rating ahead of earnings, noting that the stock hasn't fully reflected its strong growth fundamentals since the last report.
■ Apple (AAPL): Evercore maintained Outperform, arguing that Apple’s superior profitability among "Magnificent Seven" peers will be favored as other hyperscalers ramp up aggressive Capex.
■ Walt Disney (DIS): Citi maintained a Buy rating, expressing confidence that the management's ambitious growth targets are achievable based on current fundamentals.
■ Texas Instruments (TXN): Citi named it a Top Pick, citing expected margin expansion as a key catalyst.
■ CoreWeave (CRWV): Jefferies maintained a Buy rating, projecting that upcoming earnings will re-confirm computing capacity expansion and revenue growth that beats consensus.
[Featured Stocks & Corporate News]
■ Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG)
Capacity Surge: Wells Fargo upgraded Alphabet to Overweight ($387 PT). Analysts expect Alphabet’s computing capacity to grow from 15GW in 2025 to 35GW by 2028, driving Google Cloud revenue growth of 60% in 2026—far above consensus.
AI Revenue: Gemini subscription revenue is projected to jump from $4B (end of 2025) to $12B by 2027.
■ Amazon (AMZN)
$12B Louisiana Hub: Announced a massive new data center complex in Louisiana for AI and cloud computing.
Capex Skepticism: Despite a planned $200 billion Capex this year, Wall Street remains skeptical about short-term profitability, causing the stock to trade weakly throughout the session.
■ Novo Nordisk (NVO) vs. Eli Lilly (LLY)
Clinical Failure: Novo’s next-gen drug CagriSema failed to prove "non-inferiority" against Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide in weight loss trials. CagriSema saw a 23% loss vs. Tirzepatide's 25.5%.
Lilly's "QuickPen": Eli Lilly countered by launching a monthly "QuickPen" for Zepbound at a starting price of $299/month, simplifying administration for patients.
■ Software & SaaS (WDAY, DOCU, CRM, SNOW)
Sector Downgrade: Jefferies downgraded Workday, DocuSign, and monday.com to Hold, citing AI competition risks.
Valuation Re-rating: BNP Paribas re-evaluated SaaS valuations by deducting Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) from FCF, identifying ServiceNow (NOW) and Adobe (ADBE) as having the most upside, while Snowflake (SNOW) remains under pressure.
■ Cybersecurity & Tech (CRWD, IBM, AKAM, PYPL)
AI Defense: CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz countered fears that Anthropic's AI tools would disrupt security, arguing that AI actually increases the need for robust security.
IBM Threat: Anthropic claimed its 'Claude Code' can automate the modernization of COBOL-based systems, a core (but aging) business for IBM.
PayPal (PYPL): Rumors of potential acquisition interest have surfaced as its market cap has halved to $40.7B.
■ Financials & Infrastructure
Blue Owl Capital (OWL): Activist funds Saba and Coalesce are seeking to launch a tender offer for three of Blue Owl's private credit funds at a 20-35% discount to NAV, highlighting liquidity concerns in the sector.
Texas Pacific Land (TPL): KeyBanc raised its target to $639 (Overweight), focusing on the imminent opportunity in data center power and water infrastructure.
[After-Hours Featured Stocks]
■ Keysight Technologies (KEYS): Surged 14% after crushing Q4 expectations and issuing bullish 2026 revenue guidance ($1.69B–$1.71B).
■ Myriad Genetics (MYGN): Jumped 18% on a strong earnings beat.
■ Hims & Hers (HIMS): Fell 2% as its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance ($300M–$375M) missed market estimates.
■ Gossamer Bio (GOSS): Plunged a staggering 80.13% after its experimental pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment failed to meet its primary endpoint in clinical trials.
■ EverQuote (EVER): Fell 4% on disappointing Q1 2026 revenue guidance.
