[Feb 11, 2026] US Pre-market: Shopify's Bull Run vs. Guidance Shocks at Humana & Ford

■ Shopify (SHOP)

Growth Engine: Shopify reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $3.67 billion (+31% YoY), crushing analyst estimates of $0.51 and $3.59B.
Winning Streak: Excluding logistics, this marks the 11th consecutive quarter of 25%+ growth. 2025 total revenue reached $11.56B (+30% YoY).
Shareholder Returns: The company announced a $2 billion share buyback program starting February 17.
Bullish 1Q: Shopify expects Q1 revenue growth in the low 30% range, significantly higher than the 25.2% Wall Street consensus.

■ Uber (UBER)

Turkey Expansion: Uber is acquiring the delivery business of Getir, Turkey's rapid delivery pioneer, to diversify its global logistics footprint.
AI Integration: Launched "AI Cart Assistant," allowing customers to upload handwritten lists or voice prompts to automatically populate shopping carts at major retailers like Safeway and Kroger.
Delivery Strength: Q4 delivery gross bookings surged 26% to $25.4 billion.

■ Lyft (LYFT) & Mattel (MAT)

Lyft: Shares faced pressure as Q4 revenue ($1.59B) missed the $1.76B estimate. Active users (29.2M) and total rides (243.5M) also fell short of expectations.
Mattel: Missed both Q4 revenue ($1.77B vs $1.84B est) and adjusted EPS (39c vs 54c est) due to weak holiday sales and aggressive promotions. 2026 EPS guidance ($1.18–$1.30) significantly missed the $1.76 consensus.

■ Ford (F)

Tariff Headwinds: Despite a revenue beat ($45.9B vs $44.2B est), adjusted EPS of $0.13 missed the $0.18 estimate.
The $2B Bill: Ford expects $2 billion in tariff-related costs this year, largely tied to aluminum sourcing for the high-margin F-150. Morgan Stanley noted that a fire at the 'Novelis' plant forced Ford to import high-tariff foreign aluminum.
2026 Outlook: Guidance for 2026 adjusted EBIT is set between $8 billion and $10 billion, with a long-term goal of 8% EBIT margins by 2029.

■ Humana (HUM)

Guidance Shock: Humana projected 2026 adjusted EPS of at least $9.00, far below the $11.92 Wall Street consensus. The company cited a drop in Medicare Advantage quality ratings as a major headwind.
Q4 Resilience: Despite the outlook, Q4 results slightly beat expectations with a smaller-than-feared loss and revenue of $32.55B.

■ Moderna (MRNA)

FDA Rejection: The FDA refused to review Moderna's application for its standalone mRNA influenza vaccine (mRNA-1010). Moderna claims the decision is inconsistent with previous regulatory discussions.

■ Kraft Heinz (KHC)

Profit Focus: Q4 adjusted EPS (0.67) beat estimates, but 2026 EPS guidance ($1.98–$2.10) fell significantly short of the $2.49 consensus.
Pivot: The company halted its spin-off plans to focus on recovering US profitability through a $600 million investment in marketing and R&D.

■ Target (TGT)

Efficiency Push: New CEO Michael Fiedelke is cutting 500 jobs to simplify store operations and standardize the field operating model.

■ Broadcom (AVGO)

Share Gain Potential: UBS predicts Broadcom will gain market share in the AI processor space. Its custom ASICs (TPUs) are gaining traction as a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia's GPUs.
Cost Advantage: Broadcom TPUs are priced at $10k–$20k compared to Nvidia Blackwell’s $40k–$50k. Shipments are expected to grow from 3.7M units in 2026 to over 5M in 2027.

■ GlobalFoundries (GFS)

Solid Beat: Reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.55 (vs $0.48 est) and revenue of $1.83B. The board approved a $500 million share buyback.

■ Marriott (MAR): BofA raised its target to $395 (Buy), highlighting that expanded credit card partnerships could add $200M in revenue.
■ Qualcomm (QCOM): Morgan Stanley assigned an Underweight ($132 PT) rating, citing a low single-digit growth cycle and smartphone demand weakness.
■ Robinhood (HOOD): Q4 revenue ($1.28B) missed the $1.35B estimate despite an EPS beat. Analysts remain cautious of its high reliance on trading volume.

■ Cloudflare (NET): Surged 14.4% on guidance that crushed consensus.
■ Generac (GNRC): Gained 7.8% as data center business expansion offsets a soft housing market.
■ Avantor (AVTR): Plunged 13.3% on weak guidance.
■ Upwork (UPWK): Crashed 21.9% as active customers fell and outlook disappointed.

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