[Feb 09, 2026] US Pre-market: The $700B Capex Race & Obesity Pill Power Shifts

■ Microsoft (MSFT)

BNP Paribas Analysis: Maintained Outperform with a $659 price target.
Financial Discipline: Among the major hyperscalers, MSFT shows the most stable Free Cash Flow (FCF). While the top 5 hyperscalers are expected to spend $700 billion in Capex this year (up 65% YoY), MSFT is projected to maintain an FCF margin of ~22%. In contrast, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle are seeing FCF margins dip toward 5% or lower.
Growth Outlook: While Azure's growth hasn't accelerated as fast as AWS or Google Cloud recently, analysts believe that as infrastructure capacity expands, MSFT is better positioned to monetize AI through its 15 million Microsoft 365 Copilot users and its strategic partnership with OpenAI.

■ Amazon (AMZN)

Truist Update: Maintained Buy but lowered the price target from $290 to $280.
Profitability Pressure: While revenue momentum remains strong, aggressive investments in LEO satellites, quick-commerce, and global expansion are weighing on operating margins.
$200B Spending: Amazon's plan to spend $200 billion in Capex for 2026 (a 50% YoY increase) is driven by insatiable AI cloud demand. Despite the margin pressure, analysts view AMZN as structurally undervalued given its dominance in e-commerce and advertising.

■ Novo Nordisk (NVO), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Hims & Hers (HIMS)

HIMS Strategic Retreat: Hims & Hers announced it will halt plans to sell semaglutide-based obesity pills. This follows strong legal warnings from Novo Nordisk and the FDA’s crackdown on unverified compounded drugs.
Market Impact: This move allows Novo Nordisk to protect its market share for the original Wegovy pill. Eli Lilly is also expected to benefit as it awaits FDA approval for its own oral GLP-1, orforglipron, in Q2.
Pre-market Move: NVO and LLY are expected to open higher, while HIMS faces a sharp sell-off.

■ Uber (UBER)

Turkey Expansion: Uber is acquiring the delivery business of Getir, Turkey's rapid grocery delivery pioneer. This aligns with Uber's global strategy to diversify beyond ride-sharing into multi-category delivery, similar to its acquisitions of Postmates and Careem.
Autonomous Future (WeRide & Uber): Expanded partnership to deploy at least 1,200 robotaxis in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh by 2027. The goal is to scale to 15 cities by 2030.

■ Micron Technology (MU)

Samsung Pressure: MU is expected to open lower following reports that Samsung Electronics will begin mass production of next-gen HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) as early as this month. Analysts at Barron's warn this could lead to market share erosion and pricing pressure for Micron.

■ STMicroelectronics (STM)

AWS Deal: Secured a multi-billion dollar commercial contract with Amazon Web Services (AWS). STM will become a strategic supplier for AWS computing infrastructure. The deal includes warrants for AWS to potentially acquire a 2.7% stake in STM.

■ Oracle (ORCL)

DA Davidson Upgrade: Upgraded from Neutral to Buy ($180 PT). Analysts believe OpenAI’s recent capital injection (~$100B expected) removes the biggest hurdle for Oracle, ensuring OpenAI can fulfill its $300B data center contract obligations.
Note: BMO Capital recently lowered its PT to $205 citing concerns over shareholder dilution from Oracle's aggressive $45B–$50B fund-raising.

■ Robinhood (HOOD)

Wolfe Research Upgrade: Upgraded to Outperform ($125 PT). Despite the crypto downturn, analysts highlight Robinhood’s strengthened "fundamental earnings power" through its prediction markets, international expansion, and resilient retail options trading.

■ Kroger (KR): Rumored to appoint ex-Walmart executive Greg Foran as its next CEO, driving shares higher pre-market.
■ Stellantis (STLA): Wolfe Research upgraded to Peer Perform, noting that the 25% price drop has already priced in most of the EV strategy restructuring costs.
■ Shopify (SHOP): BMO Capital lowered PT to $150 (Maintained Outperform) due to the software sector's AI-driven sell-off, but noted SHOP continues to gain e-commerce market share.
■ Roblox (RBLX): Roth Capital upgraded to Buy ($84 PT), highlighting guidance for 20%+ booking growth fueled by higher-quality games and new creator tools.
■ Starbucks (SBUX): Faces intensifying premium competition in China as Luckin Coffee opens its 30,000th store and launches its first "Roastery-style" flagship flagship in Shenzhen.

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