[Market Sentiment & Technical Analysis]
Despite some recent volatility, the underlying trend for the three major U.S. indices remains intact.
Dow Jones: Brief break below support was met with a rebound. The upward trend remains valid as long as it stays above the 48,000p level (Jan 20 low).
Nasdaq: Fell below the expected 23,550–23,600p support due to weakness in Microsoft (software) and Alphabet (gaming impact). However, the broader trend is alive unless it breaches 23,000p.
S&P 500: Briefly dipped below 6,900p but recovered in late trading, maintaining its bullish posture.
[Featured Stocks]
■ Nvidia (NVDA)
OpenAI Deal Stalls: Uncertainty has spiked regarding the $100 billion investment partnership with OpenAI announced last September.
CEO's Stance: Jensen Huang clarified that the agreement is non-binding and not yet finalized. He also expressed concerns over OpenAI's "lack of discipline" in its business strategy.
Investment Scale: While confirming Nvidia will participate in funding, Huang emphasized the actual amount will be significantly less than $100 billion. Analysts note that public back-and-forth between investors and startups is "not normal" and raises red flags.
■ Alphabet (GOOGL)
Waymo's Massive Funding: Waymo is finalizing a $16 billion funding round at a $110 billion valuation.
Market Context: This valuation suggests Alphabet’s AV unit may be undervalued within the parent company or that investors may be overestimating Tesla's (TSLA) Robotaxi potential.
■ Apple (AAPL)
India Tax Win: The Indian government’s 2026 budget introduced a 5-year tax exemption for foreign companies providing equipment to contract manufacturers in customs-bonded areas.
Export Strategy: Products produced in these zones are aimed at export; selling them within India still incurs import duties. This policy follows years of lobbying by Apple to expand its manufacturing footprint in India.
■ Tesla (TSLA)
Relative Valuation: Waymo’s $110B valuation is being used as a benchmark by analysts to argue that Tesla’s current market premium might be excessive.
■ Oracle (ORCL)
Massive Cash Call: Oracle plans to raise $45B to $50B through debt and equity in 2026 to meet infrastructure demands from clients like NVIDIA, Meta, OpenAI, and xAI.
Layoff Rumors: To improve cash flow, reports suggest Oracle is weighing 20,000 to 30,000 job cuts, which could free up $8B to $10B in FCF. Morningstar noted that dilution and rising debt are disappointing current shareholders. Fitch maintains a BBB rating.
■ Disney (DIS)
Earnings Beat: Reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $25.98B, both topping estimates.
Succession Race: The board meets this week to discuss Bob Iger’s successor. Top candidates include Josh D’Amaro (Experiences) and Dana Walden (Entertainment), with an official announcement expected in Q1.
■ MicroStrategy (MSTR)
BTC Proxy Dip: Shares are falling sharply as Bitcoin prices retreated to the mid-$70,000 range.
■ AMD (AMD)
MI450 Outlook: Despite rumors of delays for the MI450 AI chip, Wells Fargo maintains an Overweight ($345 PT), expecting mass production in H2 2026. Any dip based on these rumors is viewed as a "buying opportunity".
■ Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Talc Litigation: BofA raised its target to $227 (Neutral), stating that even a $10B legal settlement would represent less than 3% of J&J's market cap, making the risk "manageable."
■ Tyson Foods (TSN)
Solid Quarter: Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.97 beat estimates ($0.93) on revenue of $14.31B (+5.1% YoY).
2026 Guidance: Maintained an adjusted operating income target of $2.1B–$2.3B.
■ Albemarle (ALB)
Lithium Correction: Shares fell 5.5% as lithium benchmark prices corrected from $26k/ton to $23k/ton, triggering profit-taking across the sector.
■ GE Vernova (GEV)
Upgraded to Buy: Guggenheim set a $910 target, citing FCF generation that is outpacing Wall Street expectations. Management raised its 2028 FCF growth target to $24 billion.
■ Starbucks (SBUX)
AI vs. Human Touch: CEO highlighted a strategy to restore "human connection" in-store while using AI to reduce friction in mobile and drive-thru orders.
Recovery Signs: Global revenue rose 5% and same-store sales grew 4% last quarter, signaling a successful shift toward menu simplification and service speed.
■ Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Earnings Schedule: Reporting after market close on February 3.
Q4 Financial Expectations
EPS Outlook: Market expectations for EPS are set at $0.49, which represents a 4% decrease year-over-year.
Revenue Growth: Revenue is projected to surge 83.5% to $10.42 billion, driven by the expansion of AI infrastructure investment.
Key Metrics: Investors are focusing more on demand sustainability, supply chain conditions, and margin guidance rather than just the headline numbers.
■ Analyst Perspectives
Bank of America (BofA)
Rating/Target: Maintained a Sell rating with a $34 price target.
Margin Risks: While demand for AI servers and racks remains robust, BofA warned that margins could shrink as large-scale contracts are increasingly decided through competitive bidding.
Profitability Pressure: Increased costs for engineering support, service investments, and rising overhead are expected to weigh on profitability.
Citigroup
Rating/Target: Lowered price target from $48 to $39 while maintaining a Hold rating.
Long-term Outlook: Despite the target cut, Citi views SMCI's long-term growth as valid, noting that hyperscaler data center spending will continue to stimulate demand for power, storage, and fiber optics.
