■ Nvidia (NVDA) – Earnings Scheduled for Feb 25
Truist maintains Buy ($275 PT): Expects strong demand and revenue growth of 67% YoY for Q4. Analysts highlight improving book-to-bill ratios across the AI infrastructure sector and upward revisions in cloud Capex plans as key tailwinds.
$50B Short Position: S3 Partners reports a massive $50 billion short position (~265 million shares) built against Nvidia, the highest in the S&P 500. However, this represents only 1% of the float, making a "short squeeze" unlikely.
■ AMD (AMD) & Meta (META)
6GW GPU Deal: The two giants expanded their strategic partnership for AI infrastructure. AMD will supply custom AMD Instinct GPUs (M1450 architecture) and 6th-gen EPYC "Venice" CPUs for Meta's AI clusters.
Performance-Based Warrants: AMD issued warrants to Meta for up to 160 million shares, exercisable as Meta hits specific shipment milestones toward the 6GW target.
■ Healthcare & Biotech Shifts
Novo Nordisk (NVO)
JPM Downgrade (Overweight → Neutral): Cited disappointing CagriSema data vs. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. JPM slashed CagriSema revenue forecasts by 40–63% for 2027–2030.
Aggressive Price Cuts: Novo plans to cut Wegovy prices by 50% and Ozempic by 34% (to $675/month) starting January 2027, coordinating with the US Medicare system.
Vir Biotechnology (VIR)
Astellas Partnership: Secured a deal with Japan’s Astellas to co-develop and commercialize VIR-5500 for prostate cancer. VIR receives $335M upfront (including $240M cash and $75M equity at a 50% premium) and up to $1.37B in milestones.
Pfizer (PFE)
China Licensing Deal: Announced a $500M deal with China’s Sciwind Biosciences to license ecnoglutide, a once-weekly GLP-1 injection for Type 2 diabetes and obesity.
■ Earnings & Guidance Highlights
Home Depot (HD)
Solid Beat: Reported Q4 revenue of $38.2B (missing slightly YoY but beating estimates) and adjusted EPS of $2.72. Market sentiment is improving as 30-year fixed mortgage rates fall below 6%.
Hims & Hers (HIMS)
Guidance Miss: Despite doubling EPS expectations (8c vs 4c est), shares were hit by weak 1Q and annual revenue guidance that fell significantly below Wall Street forecasts.
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
Strong Outlook: Crushed Q4 revenue estimates with $4.5B. 2026 revenue guidance ($25.9B–$26.4B) far exceeded the $17.2B consensus, reflecting synergies from the JDE Peet’s acquisition.
Constellation Energy (CEG)
Revenue Surprise: Q4 revenue hit $6.07B, crushing the $4.82B estimate. The company will disclose full-year guidance on March 31.
■ Policy, Legal & Industrials
FedEx (FDX)
Historic Lawsuit: FedEx filed a lawsuit in the Court of International Trade seeking a full refund of IEEPA-based tariffs following the Supreme Court’s ruling that the administration’s global tariffs were illegal. This is the first major corporate action for a refund.
IBM (IBM)
Moat Defense: Evercore maintained Outperform ($345 PT), arguing that Anthropic’s AI threat to COBOL systems is overblown. Analysts believe high-reliability clients (Gov, Finance, Healthcare) are unlikely to abandon IBM's mainframe ecosystem.
Ford (F)
Recall Alert: Recalling vehicles due to a defect in rear toe links that could cause a loss of steering control.
■ Analyst Corners
■ American Tower (AMT): Beat estimates on strong 5G and data center tower demand.
■ Spotify (SPOT): Guggenheim lowered PT to $600 citing higher risk premiums, though they remain Buy-rated. Jefferies maintained Buy ($650 PT) citing Google's Lyria 3 music AI as a strategic opportunity.
■ Kratos Defense (KTOS): Reported a Q4 beat but issued cautious 1Q guidance, citing potential weakness in the first half of 2026.
